Very rarely in history has there been an “Australian property market” to speak of. Sure, you could assess the median price across all transactions and potentially draw some (often vague) conclusions, but what was happening in Perth, Sydney and Townsville very rarely correlated, with booms, busts and everything in between occurring independently of each other.
COVID changed all that, with the initial panic drop followed by effectively 4 years of growth virtually everywhere. Sunshine Coast hinterland, Brisbane City Fringe, Cairns Northern Beaches – just about any town you could poke on a map has enjoyed a sustained period of value increase. With the same rosy story to tell across the board, property experts (and “experts”) for once could legitimately group everything in the same bag of the “Australian” property market.
Today, well now we’re a bit closer to normal. A first interest rate drop (with more predicted) will support a stronger market overall, but localised issues are once again coming to the forefront, with values once again tracking differently from city to city, and certainly between regions.
Cairns remains strongly positioned in the north, with stock constraints still translating into more buyers than sellers and prices continuing to rise – sometimes dramatically within a short period. We’re seeing downsizers compete with first home buyers to really push the envelope of values among traditionally good value smaller homes and units, particularly with new unit development virtually non-existent.
Brisbane has been the star performer among capital cities, with sustained growth and a median house price knocking on $1 million – a number that not long ago was reserved for the likes of Sydney and maybe Melbourne.
More southern capitals however are seeing softer demand as supply catches up and sometimes overtakes demand, at least at current pricing levels. Both Sydney and Melbourne have seen massive expansions both in new units and land developments over the past several years and the FOMO is wearing off. Water, beachfront and ritzy addresses have maintained their favour however and the absolute top end continues to perform. Lucky for some.
Election talk about more affordable housing is almost a certainty, but while it might have more of an impact elsewhere, we are unlikely to see this have any real effect locally. For new housing, the “affordable” product mix currently starts with a “6” and this is unlikely to change. Even with a Christmas list worth of incentives, properties are unlikely to come out of the ground any faster.